Dream Act Fiscal Projections Could be Higher Than Original Estimates

Potentially hundreds of undocumented students not originally considered in government tax estimates are planning to attend college this fall, according to student enrollment predictions by CASA de Maryland, an immigrant rights advocacy group with offices in Silver Spring.

Legislation permitting undocumented high school graduates to receive in-state tuition rates—also known as the Maryland Dream Act—was signed into law by Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) earlier this month.

The law will become effective July 1, but efforts to repeal it by referendum are already underway.

“Based on our organizing in high schools in several counties, we believe that both Montgomery and Prince George’s County will produce several hundred high school grads taking advantage [of the tuition discount] and anywhere from 50 to 100 in other regions of the state,” CASA de Maryland spokeswoman Susanna Flores wrote in a recent email to Patch.

According to the Department of Legislative Services (DLS), the research arm for the General Assembly, Maryland taxpayers will pay an additional $788,000 in fiscal year 2014 and up to $3.5 million in 2016, based on enrollment projections of 366 undocumented students this fall. Each year, Maryland pays on average $2,100 in subsidies for each full-time student, or equivalent, enrolled at a community college. 

However, fiscal estimates by DLS prepared for Dream Act legislation were based on enrollment increases for only one school—Montgomery College. There are currently 16 community colleges in Maryland.

If CASA’s student enrollment projections are correct, real fiscal costs could be double or triple what was originally estimated in the bill’s fiscal note. 

“I think it’s possible, but I really don’t think at this point we have a very good grasp of it,” said Mark Collins, an analyst for the Department of Legislative Services.

“I think that’s one good thing about the bill—it does require this count. So, if it turns out that it’s going to be three times as much, the Legislature will know about it pretty quickly. At that point it may be too late and people may not have an interest in reversing the law anyway, but at least we’ll know. Then we’ll have a better sense and know how much this initiative is costing,” added Collins.

According to DLS, a final fiscal note for Dream Act legislation is still unavailable due to a last-minute amendment, relating to four-year higher education institutions. The amendment requires undocumented students to be counted as out-of-state students, which will likely affect tuition revenue.

While the costs for the bill are pending, opponents are actively working to gather petition signatures for a referendum. By May 31 about 18,579 signatures need to be collected. A grand total of 55,736 signatures—three percent of total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election—are due by June 30.

Former District 8 Congressional candidate, Mike Philips, (R), is helping to the lead the state-wide petition referendum in Montgomery County.

“The petitions are being signed and we should exceed the number required by a large margin,” said Philips.

CASA de Maryland, along with Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, (D), will attend an event Tuesday afternoon at Wheaton High School celebrating passage of the new law. Help Save Maryland, an anti-illegal advocacy group, is planning to protest the celebration and collect signatures for the petition drive.

Montgomery College is currently being sued for offering in-state and in-county tuition rates to undocumented students. A hearing at the Montgomery County Circuit Court is scheduled for May 25.  

Efforts to interview students who plan to attend college this fall were unsuccessful.

“There are no students I work with that are willing to give their last name,” said CASA de Maryland Youth Coordinator Rosa Lozano. “Our main responsibility is the safety of the students and their families.”